DRC put spotlight on anticipatory action at HNPW 2025

DRC hosted two expert discussions at this year’s Humanitarian Networks and Partnership Week (HNPW), exploring how anticipatory action can be applied to address the growing risks of displacement and humanitarian crises in conflict- and climate-affected settings.

As global numbers of the forcibly displaced are at a high of 123 million people worldwide, a figure which is estimated to rise by about 6.7 million by 2026, according to the DRC’s Foresight model, mitigatory and forecast-informed approaches that can anticipate displacement’s largest drivers are more relevant now than ever.

The first session held under the title of Scaling Up Anticipatory Action: A Path to Reducing Humanitarian Impacts of Displacement focused on the current and potential application of anticipatory action in displacement settings, highlighting how predictive analytics and displacement forecasting are being used to anticipate and respond earlier to forced displacement.

Moderated by the Anticipation Hub, speaker perspectives ranged from IOM, DRC, Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), FAO and IFRC.

A range of innovative tools - including the joint IOM-DRC displacement forecasting dashboard - were introduced, as early warning sources enhancing our ability to predict displacement patterns and inform early, targeted action. Case studies from Colombia and South Sudan illustrated how forecasts can support timely, pre-emptive efforts.

A key milestone was the launch of the Global Working Group on Anticipatory Action for Displacement, co-led by DRC and IOM, and hosted by the Anticipation Hub, aiming to drive collaboration, evidence, and global advocacy. 

The second session titled Conflict Early Warning and Anticipatory Action – Debating along the Divide of Risk of Doing Harm and the Risk of Inaction addressed the ethical and operational challenges of anticipating conflict and its impacts. Guided by the Red Cross Climate Centre, panellists debated the tension between the risk of doing harm in producing conflict early warnings and anticipating conflict impacts versus the risk of inaction amid clear early warnings.

Discussants from FAO, Start Network, OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data, DRC and Interpeace emphasized the importance of conflict-sensitive approaches, ethical and locally grounded decision-making under inevitable uncertainty, and inclusive engagement to ensure anticipatory interventions do not exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. Further, focused efforts to bridge current gaps between the peace and humanitarian sectors need to be scaled to fully unlock anticipatory action’s potential in conflict anticipation moving forward.  

Together, the sessions underscored that anticipatory action has a vital role to play in reducing displacement and related humanitarian impacts, both in climate-vulnerable and conflict-affected settings - but must be rooted in strong contextual understanding, inclusive processes, and principled, accountable approaches. They called for greater investment, cross-sector coordination, and policy shifts to embed anticipatory action into the broader humanitarian system as a forward-looking, protective tool.